Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
